Supply growth is expected to be primarily driven by India and by Brazil, where the world’s top iron ore miner, Vale, is set to expand output with its new mine.
It is forecasted that India's iron ore output growth will be supported by the removal of export taxes in the Union Budget for low-grade ores and the country's Mines & Minerals (Development & Regulation) (MMDR) Act, which will streamline licensing and reopen closed mines.
As a result, forecasts India's iron ore output to grow from 209 million tonnes in 2018 to 221 million in 2027, representing an average annual growth of 1.6% during 2018-2027, higher than the 0.4% year over year growth seen over 2009-2017 following mining bans in Goa, Odisha and Karnataka, the largest iron-ore producing states.
In Australia, iron ore production is forecasted to decline from 2018-2027 by 0.4%. In 2017, Australia exported 829 million tonnes of iron ore, maintaining its place as the largest global exporter, but representing a 2.8% year over year decline, due to weaker demand from Japan and South Korea.